On Thursday, the third major of the golf season will be underway by the time we wake up. Most of the best golfers in the world will be at Turnberry for the prestigious British Open, the birthplace of golf. One major golfer will be absent from the tournament, Phil Mickelson had decided to skip the British Open to be with his wife and mother who both have breast cancer. Without Mickelson in the tournament, and with Tiger Woods coming off of a win at the AT&T National, cue the Tiger Woods or the field argument. While this type of debate might be interesting to watch on Around The Horn or PTI, realistically, this is not a smart argument.
Don't get me wrong, I do not think Tiger is overrated. In fact, if you forced me to pick my favorite athlete, Tiger Woods would be the choice. Also, if you were to get $100 for picking the winner of any golf tournament, you would be crazy not to pick Tiger. But, to make it like it is a 50-50 chance that Tiger Woods will win any tournament, especially the British Open is just as crazy. Looking back at the history of Tiger, it has never been that way in major tournaments.
I think people underestimate how hard it is to win a major golf tournament, and how rare Tiger Woods, the best golfer ever, actually wins majors. He wins majors at a tremendously higher rate than any other golfer, but what exactly is the rate that Tiger Woods wins majors? Well, he has competed in 48 majors as a member of the PGA Tour, and has won exactly 14. That is only a 29% win percentage, which is exceptional and so much better than anyone else, but not the 50% win percentage that you would assume if you watched the sports talk shows before majors.
So, entering the British Open, I would give Tiger at least a 29% chance to win, maybe even a little more. With no Mickelson, Tiger's odds slightly increase. Also, the fact that the British Open is at Turnberry this year also helps his chances. Although he has never seen this course, the Turnberry has had a great history for someone like Tiger. The previous 3 times that the Open was held at Turnberry, the #1 ranked player in the world has won. These facts may increase Tiger's odds to somewhere around 35%, which is again phenomenal, but not really close to 50-50.
The British Open is known for having the undiscovered players compete near the top of the leader board, which opens the playing field. I would give Tiger Woods triple the chance to win than I would give any other golfer this weekend. But when this Tiger vs the field debate is going on, think of you at a casino, with $1,000 on the line. Are you taking the 35% chance, or the 65% chance? That's what I thought.
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