By winning the World Series the Philadelphia Phillies revamped the landscape of sports fandom in Philadelphia. Everyone's a little more optimistic when it comes to sports matters now. I'm not going to go so far as to say that Philadelphia fans have become happy-go-lucky optimists (we'll save that for fans in fairweather cities like LA and San Diego.) However, things aren't as miserable as they used to be. The best example being: when football season comes now, it's more a pleasant surprise than a welcome respite from abysmal performances on the diamond. Winning this title means the Phillies now have to do everything in their power to maintain the title of "World Series Champions." If that means going out and sending a blue chip special to Toronto-- do it. Prospects are purely hype, because when they get to the majors it's always a crapshoot. If the Blue Jays want prospects (and they should), then scratch that itch for them. If parting with some guys that could end up being superstars means acquiring arguably the best pitcher in baseball, well...that's just a sacrifice I think that everyone rooting for the Phillies would be willing to make.
Why does dumping Halladay make sense for the Blue Jays? If you're unfamiliar with the situation you might not know that Roy Halladay is due to become a free agent after the 2010 season. Odds are when that day comes, it'll be the end for Halladay and the Blue Jays, since it seems unlikely that they will be able to pay Halladay what he will demand in the open market. This seems especially true when they play in a league where teams are allowed to throw money around like nobody's business (except Pac Man Jones, maybe.) So instead of letting Halladay go and receiving a few compensational draft picks for him, they should trade for prospects who have at least shown some promise. They're not sure-fire winners (no prospect is), but it beats extra draft picks. In this case they have direct control over who they are acquiring, where there is a lot more guesswork to be done in a draft. J.A. Happ is throwing well at the MLB level, and seems ike he could be a solid middle rotation guy for years to come. It makes sense that the Blue Jays would want him to help bolster what is, beyond Halladay and Ricky Romero, a pretty poor rotation. In the current offer the Phillies have on the table, they would also be sending the Jays prospects Michael Taylor, Jason Donald, and Carlos Carrasco. While Toronto isn't exactly thrilled by the assortment of prospects Philly offered here, it's better than ending up like the Twins and trading a Cy Young winner for 35 cents on the Dollar. The Jays have it bad for Phillies pitching prospect Kyle Drabek, who is widely regarded as the best prospect in the game, as well they should. Teams in the Blue Jays' position should have a strong affection towards prospects, because the future is more important than their dreary present-day situation.
That was a long paragraph.
Why would the Phillies want to part with all of these prospects? This is tricky. You want to do everything you can to defend your title without absolutely crippling your team for the future. Some teams like the Yankees never have to worry about this, because they have bottomless wallets. However, if you are not the Yankees, Red Sox, or Mets, you have to be a little more prudent with your green. Yeah, the Phillies are absolutely printing money right now with all of the sell-outs and World Series merchandise sales on top of the run-of-the-mill Phillies merchandise sales. However, they're still not in the same league economically as the aforementioned financial behemoths. The Phillies need to do this deal now. If it means giving up guys that appear to be future stars-- do it. They're in a perfect situation right now, none of the prospects they're offering in the deal are guys with MLB experience, therefore we don't know how they'll react to the Show. It affects everyone differently. Though JP Ricciardi, GM of the Toronto Blue Jays doesn't want to end up pulling an awful Minnesota/New York Johan deal, it doesn't mean that he has to make the deal by this year's deadline. He's got Halladay under contract for all of next season too. He's got the entire off-season to trade him, and he can make a deal at next year's deadline with a team looking to make a push for the title. (See: Sabathia to Brewers, Beltran to Astros.) What matters for the Phillies is to worry about winning right now. Nobody on the block gives you a better chance of doing that than Roy Halladay.
People might ask (though I'd wholeheartedly disagree with them): Why not wait until the off-season to trade for him, or wait until next year's deadline when the Blue Jays are more susceptible to make a bad deal. They don't know what's going to happen next year, it adds an element of the unknown to the deal for the Phillies, which they don't have if they make the deal by this year's deadline. They know how Halladay is pitching this year, and are getting an absolute tangible asset in this deal, whereas everything Toronto is getting is largely unproven. They know how he's pitching right now, and know that getting him means making themselves the odds-on favorites to win the NL pennant for the second year in a row. Making the deal right now makes sense for both teams. It doesn't make sense for Ricciardi to wait when he may never get a package this big, and it doesn't make sense for the Phillies to wait and let added variables enter into the equation. So I say make the deal now, and ride Halladay into the depths of October and increase your odds, vastly, of repeating as World Series Champions.
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You made some really good points. I hear fans call in to ESPN 950 that don't understand some of the things you are saying. Toronto can get the best price for Halladay right now, because he is in high demand. In the offseason, more can happen and there's not that sense of urgency (I believe as Ken Rosenthal put it). As for trading him next year at this time, there may be no close races (unlikely), the chances of 3-5 "good" prospects is much less, Halladay could be injured, or Halladay can just be a straight up bust for Toronto. He's good now, and they need to make this trade now. If not the Phillies, than (unfortunately) to some other team.
ReplyDeleteAs for the Phillies offer, Ken Rosenthal had an interesting point on Daily News Live yesterday. He had a hunch that the Happ, Carrasco, Donald deal was made out to be a lot worse than it was: there's only reports that claim this was the actual deal. He also pointed out, both the Phillies and Blue Jays have been in discussions for a while: should we really believe only two offers (one from each side) have been made?
Personally, I would not deal Drabek at all. He's off limits. It doesn't make much sense to trade a future young Halladay for an older late-day Halladay. The Phillies don't have any major everyday players leaving next season (except maybe Shane Victorino), so there's no reason they couldn't be in this same position next year. Yes, a lot can happen, and I know it's closer this year. I do agree that the trade should be done, but Drabek needs to stay out. I would offer Toronto Happ, Brown Taylor, and Donald (yes, that's a lot, but it's what they want). Happ is a pitcher they want, it is my understanding they want Brown and Taylor, and Donald would give them their shortstop. Brown is a Class A outfielder in an organization already in surplus of outfielders: no position should become avaliable any time soon for him. Same situation for Taylor, however he has better numbers for a potential right-handed batter off the bench for the Phillies.
This deal impresses me, as a fan: four top prospects for one 11 year veteran ace? Also, Halladay is switching leagues, a big factor being ignored. Sabathia clearly didn't have a problem with this last year, but it's something also worth considering. It could take some time for him to equal his Toronto numbers in the National League. Of course, it's easy to say as a fan looking in, but unless there's something about any of these guys we don't know...this deal needs to be done (without Drabek).
My only reason for saying that they should give up Drabek is if Toronto isn't doing the deal without getting him. If they can do the deal without giving up Drabek I support that 110%. I think he'll kill in the NL. He gets to pitch against pitchers instead of DHs now, and the AL has been a generally deeper and more talented league than the NL for a while (despite 2 of the last 4 World Series Champs coming from the NL, I still think the AL is a better league.)
ReplyDeleteTalent wise, the AL may be better, but there's no strategy with a DH.
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